Rubio, not Vance, gets the papal audience — and the 2028 optics that come with it

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Italy on Thursday and meet Pope Leo XIV, a Vatican source told Reuters, a high-profile diplomatic engagement that Vice President JD Vance will not share. The solo audience comes almost exactly a year after both men stood together before the pontiff on May 19, 2025, and it lands squarely in the middle of a widening conversation about which of the two figures best represents the future of the Trump coalition.

Neither the State Department nor the office of the vice president responded to requests for comment, The Daily Beast reported. The silence leaves the contrast to speak for itself: Rubio gets a seat across from the leader of 1.3 billion Catholics, while Vance does not.

The timing matters. President Trump has publicly named both men as potential successors in 2028. Behind the scenes, Trump has reportedly asked aides to "rank" Vance's performance. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten has described Vance as "historically the least popular vice president at this point in their vice presidency," citing a net approval rating of negative 18 points. Against that backdrop, a papal meeting is more than a photo opportunity, it is a diplomatic credential that travels well on a campaign trail.

A complicated year between Vance and the Vatican

When Vance and Rubio met Pope Leo together last May, the moment looked like a show of Trump-administration unity before the Illinois-born pontiff. Born Robert Francis Prevost on the South Side of Chicago, Leo became the first American pope, and quickly became a complicated figure for the White House.

The pope's public references to "tyrants" and "warmongers" drew sharp reactions from Washington. President Trump fired back last month with a 334-word Truth Social post claiming the pontiff "wouldn't be in the Vatican" without him and accusing Leo of "hurting the Catholic Church!" That broadside set the tone for the kind of late-night social media exchanges that have become a regular feature of this administration's public posture.

Vance initially joined the criticism. At a Turning Point USA event in Georgia, the vice president said he thought "it's very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology." That remark carried an unmistakable edge, a sitting vice president publicly cautioning the pope about the boundaries of his own office.

Later, Vance softened. He praised Leo for "preaching the gospel, as he should," and extended what amounted to an olive branch, inviting the pope to visit the White House. Leo has so far declined.

Rubio's quieter path to the papal audience

While Vance was publicly sparring with and then courting the Vatican, Rubio kept a lower profile on the pope question. His biography offers a natural bridge. Born into a Catholic family, Rubio explored other denominations, including the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints during his time in Utah, before returning to the Catholic Church. That personal story gives a papal meeting a biographical logic that requires no diplomatic cleanup.

The contrast in recent weeks has been visible in other ways. While Vance was working on ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, Rubio attended a UFC event alongside Trump. The optics cut both directions: Vance was doing the grinding work of diplomacy, but Rubio was at the president's side for the kind of public outing that signals personal closeness.

Last month, Vance attended Iran war talks, serious, consequential work. But the nature of those negotiations keeps them largely out of public view. A meeting with the pope, by contrast, produces images that circulate worldwide. And in the unspoken competition between two men who may both want the same job in 2028, visibility is its own currency.

What the Vatican gets, and what Vance doesn't

For Pope Leo, receiving Rubio rather than Vance may be its own kind of message. The vice president's public admonition, telling the pope to "be careful" about theology, is not the sort of remark that gets forgotten in Rome. Rubio, by contrast, carries no such baggage from the past year. The Vatican source who confirmed the meeting to Reuters offered no explanation for why Vance was not included, and neither side has filled in the gap.

The Vance family has remained active on the ceremonial stage, Usha Vance recently welcomed British royals at the White House, but ceremonial hosting is a different tier of diplomatic engagement than a private papal audience. One is protocol; the other is statesmanship.

There is no public evidence that Vance was deliberately excluded. He may have had scheduling conflicts. He may have chosen not to attend. The fact that neither his office nor the State Department offered any explanation is itself notable. In Washington, silence around a missed opportunity usually means someone would rather not draw attention to it.

The 2028 shadow

Both Rubio and Vance understand that every high-profile engagement between now and 2028 is being catalogued, by donors, by party operatives, and by a president who, by all accounts, is watching closely. Trump's reported habit of asking aides to rank Vance's performance suggests a boss who keeps score.

Rubio's papal meeting adds a line to a résumé that already includes the secretary of state title. For Catholic voters, a swing demographic in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, a warm handshake with Pope Leo carries weight that no policy paper can replicate. The broader administration has kept a busy public calendar, but few events on it carry the same global resonance as a one-on-one with the pope.

Vance's defenders can point to substance: ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, Iran war talks, the daily grind of the vice presidency. That work matters. But in presidential politics, the perception of stature often outpaces the reality of effort. And right now, Rubio is the one boarding the plane to Italy.

The open questions are worth stating plainly. Did Vance want to go and get passed over? Did the Vatican prefer Rubio? Did the White House make the call? Nobody on the record is saying. The broader Trump political and legal environment is complex enough that personnel signals can get lost in the noise. But this one is hard to miss.

In politics, the meeting you don't get invited to tells you as much as the one you attend. Sometimes more.