New poll shows Hochul clinging to a four-point lead as New York voters sour on her record

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by just four points in a new gubernatorial poll, a margin that signals deep trouble for a Democrat governing one of the bluest states in the country.

The survey, conducted by Red Oak Strategic for the pro-Blakeman Strong and Safe super PAC, found Hochul at 47 percent to Blakeman's 43 percent among 2,000 registered voters, with 10 percent undecided. The New York Post first reported the results Tuesday. A July 21 memo from the polling firm put the findings bluntly: "The environment favors a challenger: just 33% say New York is headed in the right direction vs. 57% wrong track."

Those numbers land in a political environment where Hochul's own approval rating sits at 39 percent, with 56 percent of voters disapproving. Only 33 percent said she deserves another term. Sixty-one percent said it is time for someone else.

The poll was commissioned by a group backing Blakeman, and that matters. But the direction of the numbers tracks with independent data showing Hochul's position eroding month after month. A Siena College poll released in June had Hochul ahead by 20 points, and the RealClearPolling average still shows her up by more than 17. Yet even the Siena data carried warning signs for the governor.

Siena's own numbers show a governor losing her base

Earlier this year, a Siena College survey found that only 36 percent of New York voters supported Hochul's reelection, while 55 percent preferred a different candidate. That 36 percent figure represented a 10-point drop in a single month, falling from 39 percent in April to 36 percent in May. Among Democrats, her own party, just 51 percent backed her, while 38 percent wanted someone else.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that while Hochul's favorability and job approval had briefly ticked up, Republicans "already very negative toward Hochul, turned even more so on both measurements." When a sitting governor cannot hold even three-quarters of her own party's voters, the four-point margin in the Red Oak poll starts to look less like an outlier and more like a trend catching up to reality.

A separate Just The News analysis of the Siena data emphasized that 82 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of independents preferred a different gubernatorial candidate over Hochul. Those independent numbers matter most. In the Red Oak poll, Blakeman leads independents 54 percent to 33 percent, a 21-point gap that no amount of Democratic base turnout can easily erase.

Hochul is not the only prominent Democrat watching her political standing collapse. In California, Katie Porter abandoned politics entirely after a devastating gubernatorial loss, and the pattern of once-safe blue-state Democrats facing unexpected vulnerability has become impossible to ignore.

Blakeman leads with independents despite near-total anonymity

Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, faces a paradox that could work in his favor. Forty-seven percent of voters told Red Oak they had never heard of him or had no opinion. His favorability rating among those who do know him is positive, though the poll did not publish exact figures. In a race where the incumbent is this unpopular, low name recognition is a problem that money and time can fix. An underwater approval rating is not.

Blakeman is running strongest in the suburbs, a traditional battleground in New York statewide races. One Republican pollster, cited by Newsmax, noted that Blakeman is "far ahead of where Lee Zeldin was at this point in the campaign", a reference to the 2022 race that Zeldin ultimately lost by a smaller margin than most analysts predicted.

Republican voter enthusiasm reinforces that comparison. Seventy-three percent of GOP voters described themselves as "much more interested" in the governor's race, compared to just 44 percent of Democrats. Red Oak's turnout model projected a Republican enthusiasm edge, and if that gap holds through Election Day, it compresses Hochul's already thin margin further.

Hochul is not the only Democrat in New York drawing voter frustration. In New York City, Mayor Mamdani has drawn bipartisan criticism for his handling of rising crime statistics, adding to a broader sense among Empire State voters that Democratic leadership is failing them on basic governance.

Hochul holds a massive cash advantage, for now

If the polling trajectory favors Blakeman, the money does not. Hochul's campaign committee, Friends of Kathy Hochul, reported $21 million on hand. The New York State Democratic Party holds another $22 million. Combined, that war chest is more than four times what Blakeman and the state GOP have raised.

Blakeman has allies working to close the gap. James Dolan, the owner of Madison Square Garden, steered $700,000 to the Strong and Safe super PAC this month through MSG Entertainment and MSG Sports, according to campaign filings. Blakeman has raised nearly $11 million overall, a respectable sum but still dwarfed by the Democratic machine.

Money matters in New York, where media markets are among the most expensive in the country. But it matters less when the fundamentals are this rotten for the incumbent. A governor with 38 percent favorability and 58 percent unfavorability is not going to buy her way out of a wrong-track number north of 57 percent.

The broader pattern across blue states tells the same story. In Colorado, a sitting Democratic senator was toppled in his own party's gubernatorial primary, a reminder that Democratic voters themselves are losing patience with their leadership class.

Hochul's vulnerabilities extend beyond the horse race

Hochul's problems are not confined to abstract approval numbers. Real-world failures are feeding voter discontent. Con Edison cut power to a Bronx Jewish neighborhood during a July heat wave, a concrete quality-of-life failure that lands on the governor's watch. The Justice Department sued New York state health officials over a $10 billion Medicaid program, raising questions about the state's management of federal health care dollars.

These are the kinds of tangible breakdowns that turn soft disapproval into hard opposition. Voters do not need a pollster to tell them the state is on the wrong track when the lights go out in a heat wave or federal prosecutors come after the state's Medicaid spending.

Hochul is also not the only governor in a deep-blue state facing this kind of reckoning. California's Gavin Newsom has faced withering criticism for refusing to acknowledge his state's decline, a posture that mirrors Hochul's apparent inability to reverse New York's trajectory on the issues voters care about most.

The Red Oak poll does not settle the question of whether Blakeman can win. It was commissioned by his allies, its margin of error was not disclosed, and its methodology beyond sample size and field dates remains unclear. Independent polls still show Hochul with a comfortable lead. But the direction of every data point, approval, favorability, right direction, reelection sentiment, enthusiasm, runs against her.

A separate Washington Examiner report on a different poll found that Rep. Elise Stefanik, who briefly explored a gubernatorial bid, trailed Hochul by only three points, within the margin of error, with 54 percent of likely voters disapproving of the governor and 55 percent saying it was "time for someone new."

Whether Blakeman or any Republican ultimately closes the deal, the picture is consistent: New York voters have made up their minds about Kathy Hochul. They just have not yet decided who replaces her.

When six out of ten voters say it is time for someone new, the only question left is whether the other side can field someone they have heard of. Hochul's real opponent is not Bruce Blakeman, it is her own record.