Crockett leads Talarico in Texas Senate Democratic primary as both candidates carry baggage into March vote

Democratic State Representative Jasmine Crockett holds a 12-point lead over State Representative James Talarico in the Texas Senate Democratic primary, according to the latest UT/Texas Politics Project poll released this week. With the primary set for March 3, 2026, the survey of 1,300 registered voters found Crockett pulling 56 percent to Talarico's 44 percent among Democratic primary voters.

For conservatives watching this race, the real story isn't which Democrat wins. It's what both candidacies reveal about where the Texas Democratic Party is heading, and how little either option threatens the GOP's grip on the state.

The numbers behind the primary

The UT/Texas Politics Project poll, conducted from February 2-16, 2026, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points for the Democratic primary subset. Crockett's advantage runs deepest among Black voters, where she leads 87 percent to 12 percent. Among Hispanic voters, she edges Talarico 52 to 48 percent. Talarico holds a modest advantage among white voters, 53 to 47 percent, as Newsweek reports.

Crockett also wins the favorability contest. Seventy-one percent of respondents viewed her favorably, compared to 59 percent for Talarico. Twenty-one percent had no opinion on Talarico, nearly double the 12 percent who said the same about Crockett.

But the picture isn't entirely one-sided. A Talarico campaign internal poll conducted by Impact Research from February 10-12 among 800 likely voters showed Talarico leading by 4 points, 47 to 43 percent. An earlier University of Houston/YouGov poll from late January had Crockett ahead 47 to 39 percent, while an Emerson College poll from January 10-12 showed Talarico leading 47 to 38 percent. The polling is unsettled. What's settled is that neither candidate is running away with it.

Two flavors of the same problem

Crockett told Newsweek she views herself as the unconventional candidate the moment requires:

"We are living in unprecedented times, and so I think an unprecedented candidate is exactly what it's going to take to actually be able to flip this seat. Right now, the Republicans have been losing all over this country, and even when they're not losing, well, those margins are shrinking. But more importantly, I think that our base is hungry for something different."

Republicans losing all over the country is an interesting claim from a party that just lost the White House convincingly. President Donald Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, a wider margin than his 2016 or 2020 performances. The "shrinking margins" narrative that Democrats have been telling themselves about Texas for a decade ran headfirst into 2024 and came out worse for it.

Then there's the baggage. Crockett's past remarks include calling Governor Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, "Governor Hot Wheels" and saying Hispanic supporters of President Trump had a "slave mentality." These aren't gaffes taken out of context. They're a window into how a certain wing of the Democratic Party talks about people who disagree with them. A candidate who mocks disability and questions the mental autonomy of Latino voters is not the profile that flips a deep-red state.

Talarico has been fighting his own fires. His campaign has battled allegations stemming from a January 12 conversation with a political content creator, in which former Democratic Representative Colin Allred was allegedly referred to as "a mediocre Black man." Talarico called it a "mischaracterization of a private conversation" and pushed back against what he described as a "method of campaigning" he rejected.

Talarico's pitch leans on warmed-over populist rhetoric. He told Newsweek:

"I started off this campaign by saying I don't see politics as left versus right, I see it as top versus bottom. And I see the billionaires who are trying to divide us with their social media algorithms, with their cable news networks, with the politicians who are fighting on our screens. And so I'm trying to bridge those divides."

Blame billionaires. Blame algorithms. Promise to "bring people together." The problem is that this message has to survive contact with a Texas general electorate that voted for Trump by 14 points. Vague economic populism from a Democrat doesn't travel well in a state where conservative populism already has a home.

Betting markets tell a different story

The prediction markets diverge sharply from the latest polls. As of Wednesday, Kalshi gave Talarico a 71 percent chance of winning the primary compared to Crockett's 30 percent. Whether the markets are pricing in internal data, momentum, or simply a different model of who actually shows up on March 3, the gap between polling and betting odds adds uncertainty heading into election day.

If neither candidate clears 50 percent, the race heads to a May 26 runoff, extending Democratic infighting well into late spring and burning resources the eventual nominee will desperately need for the general election.

The GOP primary and the bigger picture

On the Republican side, the same poll showed a three-way race for the seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn, who has served since 2002. State Attorney General Ken Paxton leads at 36 percent, Cornyn sits at 34 percent, and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt trails at 26 percent. None are close to the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

Paxton enters with strong backing from more conservative supporters and Trump-aligned voters, despite his legal controversies and prior impeachment by the state House in 2023. Cornyn has faced criticism from parts of the Republican base over his support for a 2022 bipartisan gun safety bill and past comments about Trump. Trump himself has not endorsed in the primary.

The GOP primary is its own complicated story, but one critical fact separates it from the Democratic contest: whoever emerges will be the heavy favorite in November.

Texas isn't turning

Democrats have pointed to shrinking Republican presidential margins in Texas throughout the 2010s: nearly 16 points in 2012, 9 in 2016, under 6 in 2020. That trendline was supposed to culminate in a blue Texas sometime around now. Instead, Trump won the state by nearly 14 points in 2024, blowing the trajectory apart.

The national Senate map reinforces the challenge. The current 53-47 Republican majority means Democrats need real pickups, not moral victories. They're eyeing Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points, while defending seats in Georgia and Michigan. Betting markets give Republicans a 59 percent chance of holding the Senate majority. Polymarket puts the figure at 60 percent.

Colin Allred, the Democrats' 2024 Senate nominee who lost to Ted Cruz, initially launched a 2026 campaign for this very seat before dropping out to run for a House seat near Dallas instead. When your most prominent recent candidate decides the race isn't worth running, that tells you everything about how winnable Democrats actually think this seat is.

March 3 will tell Texas Democrats which nominee they've chosen. November will remind them why it didn't matter.