In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 4.5 points. Even if you do believe that figure, it's important to note that Trump had been predicted to lose by 7.2 points.
Even though Trump "lost" the 2020 election, he outperformed polling, just as he did in 2016, when he defeated Hillary Clinton in an upset NOBODY in the mainstream media believed would happen.
So, if the trend continues in 2024, Trump is in EXCELLLENT shape.
That's because Trump has taken the lead in the national polls when it comes to a rematch in 2024. Knowing that polls and media outlets always diminish Trump's numbers to try to portray him as some sort of fringe lunatic, it's not surprising that he outperforms the polls.
If members of the media are being forced to admit that Trump is leading Biden in a hypothetical rematch right now, then previous data tells us that Trump's ACTUAL lead is quite a bit more than that.
Trump is currently beating Joe Biden by 1.7 points in a national poll. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is also beating Biden in the same poll by 1.6 points.