SCOTUS poised to issue pivotal ruling on Trump immunity claim

Former President Donald Trump and special counsel Jack Smith have been doing battle in the courtroom for quite some time now, and Monday is poised to be a truly pivotal day in what has been a contentious and undeniably high-stakes conflict.

This week, the U.S. Supreme Court will finally issue its ruling on Trump's claim of immunity, as ABC News reports, rendering what will be a decision impacting several of the criminal charges pending against the former president, and one which also promises to shape the trajectory of the 2024 presidential election.

Key decision expected Monday

After months of uncertainty, the world will know on Monday whether a majority of justices believe that Trump is to be protected against criminal liability for conduct undertaken while serving as president.

Specifically, the court will rule whether the conduct referenced in Smith's election interference indictment against Trump is covered by the type of immunity the president's lawyers have argued he should enjoy.

Though Smith had initially secured a trial date of March 4 on those charges, with the presumed hope of a conviction ahead of the presidential election, a host of delays, defense motions, and appeals have kept the case on hold for months.

Trump's prospects for success

Though lower courts thus far have not been on board with Trump's claims of immunity, the high court agreed to hear the case, with oral arguments having taken place back in April.

As Fox News noted at the time, the presentations from lawyers representing Trump as well as Smith's team were lengthy, and it appeared to legal observers listening to them that the court was likely to offer a mixed decision in the matter.

After several hours of arguments, it seemed obvious to many that the justices were split on just how far a president's immunity ought to stretch, with the idea of absolute immunity for all acts committed emerging as less popular than a sort of middle ground involving qualified immunity.

The one thing that was clear, however, was the court's recognition of the importance of its eventual decision, with Justice Neil Gorsuch declaring, “We're writing a rule for the ages,” an acknowledgement that the outcome would impact not just Trump's future, but that of every future president to assume the office.

Indicative of the potential divide on the issue was a statement from Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson expressing concern that broad immunity could give presidents a perception that they were free to commit crimes at will while in the Oval Office, contrasted with Justice Samuel Alito's worry that a lack of immunity would yield a destabilized country in which leaders felt paralyzed by a fear of subsequent prosecution.

Winning scenarios abound

Constitutional scholar John Shu has suggested that while several justices may harbor personal disdain for Trump's conduct on Jan. 6 and thereafter, based on their questions during oral arguments, they also “seem uncomfortable with either granting blanket immunity on the one hand, or no immunity at all on the other.”

As such, according to Shu, it is a a distinct possibility that the court will remand the matter to the lower court for further proceedings on whether the conduct at issue constituted “official” acts or “private ones,” and only then could a ruling on the extent of applicable immunity with regard to Trump be reached.

A process of that nature would give Trump at the very least a partial victory in that it would produce significant delays in Smith's Jan. 6 case that could easily stretch beyond the election, and in the end, the special counsel could find himself having to trim the number of criminal counts he is able to pursue.

Given that Smith's classified documents trial against Trump has already been indefinitely postponed due to extensive pretrial issues still requiring resolution, Monday's ruling from the high court could be an effective death blow to the lawfare campaign the special counsel hoped would keep the former president from standing any chance of returning to the White House.