Polymarket platform bettors put notable sums on Michelle Obama election chances

 February 2, 2024

As the 2024 presidential election heats up, prognostications are running wild, but according to a notable faction of bettors on the Polymarket prediction platform, former first lady Michelle Obama's potential status in the race is not to be discounted, as DL News explains.

Excitement among wagerers about the possibility that Mrs. Obama might run for the Oval Office has even sent the aforementioned platform to a new record in monthly volume.

Participants in this particular form of 2024 speculation have already placed $2.3 million in bets that Michelle Obama will be heading to the White House in January of 2025.

While that only translates – at this point – to onljusty a 4% chance that she will indeed step into the role of commander in chief, the tally gives her the third-highest odds of success out of the entire spectrum of candidates.

Currently, former President Donald Trump is the far-and-away favorite among those placing bets, holding a 54% chance of prevailing come November.

The sitting president, Joe Biden, remains in second position, with a 38% likelihood of re-election, according to those making guesses with Polymarket.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley – currently challenging Trump for the GOP nomination – and independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. are each running at a roughly 1% chance of becoming president, according to wagers placed with the platform.

Though not necessarily the most reliable method of predicting presidential election outcomes, Polymarket did show surprising accuracy with regard to the 2020 presidential contest, with the platform showing a 59% likelihood of Biden winning that election just prior to the announcement of official results.

It must be noted that Mrs. Obama has made no explicit indication that she has any intention whatsoever of throwing her hat into the ring in 2024, but there have been increasing rumblings among the political punditry that such an outcome is more likely than many believe.

One of the more outspoken believers in the inevitability of a Michelle Obama presidential run has been Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has repeatedly opined on the former first lady's prospects, as the Daily Wire has reported.

Earlier this year, Cruz suggested that Mrs. Obama's intentions were effectively transmitted during her appearance on the On Purpose podcast with host Jay Shetty, when she discussed the knowledge she gained as the wife of a president and revealed her fears about what could happen in the next election – presumably a reference to potential second Trump term.

According to Cruz, Mrs. Obama was “pitching her qualifications, like everything she knows, because she was married to Barack Obama when he was president, and still is today that she, like knows everything the president needs to know.”

Cruz went on to say that her podcast appearance “does feel a little bit of a pitch of, 'hey guys, I'm here, I'm ready. I can step in, and I'm willing to do it,” suggesting that she is prepared to enter the fray in the event Biden is no longer a viable option.

“And so, I would change as I said, my assessment a couple of months ago was the odds of Michelle being the nominee were 35%. Based on this interview, I would change those odds from 35% to 45%,” Cruz added, and while Polymarket bettors may not have reached that level of confidence quite yet, there are many months to go before the final presidential matchup is solidified.