Polling data analyst Nate Silver predicts Trump wins Electoral College against VP Harris

Former President Donald Trump received some amazing news this week from polling guru Nate Silver, a data analyst and the founder of FiveThirtyEight.

While Vice President Kamala Harris enjoyed an overhyped coronation and a minor bump during the Democratic National Convention, now that the hype has died down, Trump is pulling right back into his original, dominant spot.

According to the New York Post, Silver, according to his data, now estimates that the former president has "a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College" compared to Harris' 41.6% chance.

The news came in the latest edition of his election forecast bulletin.

"Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," Silver wrote. "And the chance of an Electoral College-popular vote split working against Harris has risen to almost 18 percent."

Harris does win the popular vote in Silver's dataset, but as it was noted, the popular vote doesn't put you in the White House. Trump wins the Electoral College in his scenario, which would definitely be a massive win for the former president.

The Post noted:

Silver’s model predicts that Harris has a 58.9% chance of winning the national popular vote — which has no bearing on the winner of the race — but that Trump will rack up 274 Electoral College votes, topping the vice president’s 263 estimated Electoral College total.

Silver summarized in an X post what he believes to be happening right now as far as Harris' hype dying out and Trump re-surging in popularity.

"There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer," Silver's post read.

There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven't really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer.https://t.co/SPS1OGKNw2

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 4, 2024

It was noted that even with his latest election forecast, Silver's model still shows that the election is considered anyone's game -- a "toss-up," according to the election data scientist.

Social media users offered mixed reactions to what they believe is happening.

"Democrats initially thought Kamala would be able to answer questions and do the basic things that Biden cannot. Turns out she's even worse at that stuff," one X user wrote.

Only time will tell if Silver's forecast is accurate.