New Jersey 2025 election: Republican surge in mail-in votes as Ciattarelli, Sherrill battle

In a striking shift for New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, mail-in voting data reveals a significant Republican gain, intensifying the already tight contest between GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

With updated figures released on Sept. 26, the data shows a nine-point swing toward Republicans compared to the same point in 2024, highlighting the competitiveness of this closely watched election, as Breitbart reports.

On Friday, Sept. 26, the latest mail-in ballot returns for New Jersey’s gubernatorial election were released, showing a notable change in voter trends. Analyst Michael Pruser noted that Republican returns have increased significantly. He stated, “Republican returns are up nine points compared to the same stage of the 2024 cycle.”

Unexpected Republican Gains in Early Voting

The breakdown of current mail-in ballots indicates Democrats hold 63.8% of returns, a drop of 4.8 points from last year. Republicans, meanwhile, have climbed to 23.6%, a rise of 4.6 points. This also marks a 3.5-point improvement for the GOP compared to 2021 levels.

This shift in early voting patterns comes as the race between Ciattarelli and Sherrill remains deadlocked. A recent Emerson College poll, conducted Sept. 22-23, showed both candidates tied at 43%, with 11% of voters still undecided.

Earlier polling painted a slightly different picture, with a June survey from National Research Inc. showing Sherrill ahead by a narrow margin of 45% to 42%. Voter frustration over the state’s direction was cited as a major factor influencing opinions at that time.

Debates Heat Up with Policy Pledges

As the campaign progresses, debates between the candidates have grown increasingly heated. Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021 and is backed by former President Donald Trump, has focused on economic promises. He has vowed to avoid raising the sales tax while pushing for reductions in income and property taxes.

Ciattarelli has also taken aim at Sherrill’s record, accusing her of lacking transparency regarding stock trades during her time in Congress. He referenced reports from The New York Times and Business Insider claiming Sherrill failed to comply with disclosure rules on investments in defense and technology sectors.

In response, Sherrill has stood by her tenure in Congress, emphasizing her commitment to fiscal accountability. She promised to “drive down your cost at every level” for New Jersey residents.

Sherrill Faces Scrutiny Over Past Incident

Beyond policy disputes, Sherrill has faced renewed attention over an episode from her time at the U.S. Naval Academy. A report by the New Jersey Globe revealed that in 1994, she was prohibited from walking at graduation due to her refusal to report classmates involved in a 1992 cheating scandal.

Sherrill has acknowledged the disciplinary action but clarified its impact on her career. She noted that despite the penalty, she graduated, was commissioned, and served nearly 10 years in the Navy.

Ciattarelli has criticized Sherrill for not being forthcoming about this incident, suggesting she hid it from the public. Sherrill, however, has dismissed the focus on this matter, calling it an attempt to tarnish her military service record.

Tight Race Reflects Broader Voter Tensions

The combination of shifting mail-in voting trends and personal attacks has kept this race on a razor’s edge. Both candidates are working to sway the undecided voters, who could ultimately tip the balance in this closely matched contest.

As New Jersey heads toward Election Day, the Republican gains in early voting suggest a potential change in the state’s political landscape. Ciattarelli aims to capitalize on this momentum, building on his strong showing from four years ago.

Meanwhile, Sherrill continues to defend her record while pushing a message of economic relief for residents. With debates showcasing sharp contrasts and polls showing no clear leader, the outcome remains uncertain as the campaign enters its final stretch.