The latest NPR/Marist poll showed that while voters overall were statistically tied in choosing between President Joe Biden (47%) and former President Donald Trump (46%), independent voters had a clearer preference between the two.
Among independents, 48% favored Trump while only 40% preferred Biden.
Many elections are decided on the strength of the independent vote, with the choice of the independent voters making the difference in the race.
The July Harvard-Harris poll showed Trump with an 18-point lead over Biden with independents, 45%-27%. Far more independents were undecided in that poll, however.
Most independents did not agree with the third indictment of Trump, meaning that his support may get even stronger once reaction to the fourth indictment can be measured.
Keep in mind, however, that independents are notoriously fickle and easily swayed, so they could change their minds multiple times in the next 14-plus months.
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