AOC seen as strong contender for 2028 election, says Nate Silver

In a recent discussion on the "Silver Bulletin" Substack, electoral analyst Nate Silver and political journalist Galen Druke speculated on the potential Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez emerging as an early favorite if she chooses to run.

According to the New York Post, Ocasio-Cortez’s rising prominence in Democratic circles was a significant focus, as Silver and Druke acknowledged her strong favorability ratings and broad party appeal.

Nate Silver, known for his accurate electoral predictions, and Galen Druke, his colleague on the Substack platform, conducted a draft of potential 2028 Democratic contenders. While detailing their thoughts, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, often referred to as AOC, was highlighted as a key figure in the Democrats' speculative lineup. Druke's choice of Ocasio-Cortez as his top draft pick underscores her prominent role in the current political landscape.

Favorability Ratings Boost AOC's Profile

A poll conducted by Yale University showed Ocasio-Cortez boasting a net favorability rating of +60 points among Democrats, an indication of her robust support base. She ranked second in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary poll, just behind Vice President Kamala Harris. Druke emphasized that Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal within the party and noted her dedicated support as critical factors in her potential candidacy.

Silver agreed with Druke, albeit with caution, highlighting uncertainties surrounding Ocasio-Cortez’s future decisions and the challenges she may face about electability. However, their discussion also touched on the strategic efforts she has made, citing her "Fighting Oligarchy Tour" with Senator Bernie Sanders as evidence of her political ambitions for a possible run.

Analyzing Party Dynamics and Alliances

Further bolstering her stance, Ocasio-Cortez reportedly polled favorably against Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical state matchup. Conversations between Silver and Druke also expanded to include other potential candidates such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, and, notably, Kamala Harris.

Kamala Harris, according to Druke, may have an edge due to her universal name recognition and potential to clear the field if she decides early on her candidacy. Yet, her looming decision between pursuing the California governorship in 2026 or the presidency in 2028 remains a topic of deliberation among political analysts.

The Influence of Celebrity Endorsements

In an unexpected turn, actor George Clooney added a new dimension to the Democratic landscape. Through an op-ed, Clooney expressed confidence in President Biden’s capabilities. He introduced another possible contender, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, suggesting him as a significant figure to watch for the Democratic nomination in 2028.

Silver, reflecting on his career milestones, including his prediction success rate for the 2008 election, used his expertise to provide insights into the Democrat's potential lineup. His experience adds weight to the speculations surrounding Ocasio-Cortez and her plausible ascent to the presidential race forefront.

As the 2028 election approaches, the dynamics within the Democratic Party are expected to evolve significantly. While Ocasio-Cortez's potential candidacy is generating buzz, the broader political landscape will continue to be shaped by other influential players within the party, each vying for a place in the next presidential election cycle.